I recently joined a workshop with civil society leaders led by INCITEGov and Asia Democracy Network – ADN to share my assessment of the second Marcos administration thus far and its consequences to democracy advocates. Drawing from rich survey data of WR Numero Research, I talked about the emerging trouble/s in “Bagong Pilipinas” paradise. The happy story of the perfect marriage of Old Order Restorationists supposedly the path to a happy ending even after 2028 is turning into a story of a bad, bitter, and cruel divorce. And therein lies the challenges, threats, and opportunities.
I identified three troubles. First, the Restoration project is losing its spark. Popular support for both Marcos Jr. and Duterte are declining. Less than a majority of Filipinos now find their performance to be good. The collapse of UniTeam is also a significantly unpopular development for our people. And without the Duterte constituency support that re-energized the dead and toxic brand of the Marcos family, Bongbong Marcos is set to join the usual trajectory of Fifth Republic presidents: early popularity, but ultimately a decline in the long-run. Meanwhile, the Duterte family also remain vulnerable outside Mindanao whose top-down, governance by threat rule in the past years upset many of the lords and ladies of the land. And no longer protected by the gates of Malacañang, they can no longer hide from the torch and pitchfork crowds.
Second, anxieties, confusion, and uncertainties continue to shape public opinion on the China threat. Filipinos do not trust China and Xi Jinping, they’re anxious about the escalating tensions in the West Philippine Sea, but they do not wish to extend public political capital to the government to prioritize it. Many Filipinos are convinced that it shouldn’t be focus of government attention, that involving ourselves in international affairs is not ideal, and that government must leave Taiwan on its own. There’s very little agenda and ambition in the Marcos Jr government aside from Restoration. An exception is the attention and focus its giving on the West Philippine Sea issues. But even this is not enough to rally Filipinos around the flag.
And lastly, a trouble that is an opportunity for those in the good fight. The 2025 midterm elections is going to be a contest between administration factions. Most have already allied with Bongbong as any politician wishing access to Malacañang campaign kitty would but I wouldn’t discount the chances of the Duterte-endorsed candidates. But the Duterte candidates are probably praying very hard to get Digong himself on the 2025 Senate ticket. His candidacy will make it easier for them remobilize support of the Duterte constituency. And this, probably, will be the greatest gift that Digoing can give to the opposition (and the country). By throwing his full weight against Marcos Jr. and dividing the administration votes, they make it possible for opposition candidacies to be more competitive numbers-wise. A return to the familiar familial competition at the top is probably going to be good for democracy in the now. But what is certain is that neither a Marcos consolidation victory nor a Duterte challenger win will be good for the country in the long-run. We can’t keep replacing one reactionary faction for another, all working hard against all hopes of change and reform.
Cleve V. Arguelles 